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Need introduction to the survey – and link.   Gary may want to review article and note observations I’ve ‘missed’.

  • No claim in the AP survey has been vetted (likely inflated guesses).  Zero costs acknowledged. ‘Free’ labor (effort, time).
  • One massive outlier claim (outright liar) was removed prior to calculations summarized below.
  • Mora/USDA 1992-93 was at v:v  1:1.    Mora+ is adjusted to v:v 1:2.4  with same unit area, volume yields.
  •  Percentile values graphed below, approximated +/- 5% (N=187).   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percentile
  • –  I.e., Twenty percent of the values of an ordered set will lie at or below the twentieth percentile (P20), and eighty percent of values fall above it.
    • Retained in spreadsheet form … with enough numbers to make the average adult primate swoon &/or wretch.
  • Percentiles were calculated for (on) area, volume, fish mass and plant mass.   Yields and currency value then derived.
  • Constant unit values applied throughout, i.e fish $3.30/kg, plant $6.60/kg.
  • ‘apples to apples’, ‘claim to claim’, ‘ape to ape’ …

composite area bar

grow out volume bar

Fish yield bar

Plant area bar

plant yield bartotal revenue bar

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BONUS: Cost to grow tilapia in US (3 feed types, 3 harvest sizes)

What part of this makes ANY ‘cents’?  (AKA FKN Insanity)

Tilapia grow-out costs,jpg

click image to enlarge

^ Tilapia fillet from $34 to $73 /kg (w/ capex, heating. pumping, labor (time), misc. supplies ALL = $0.00)

actual UPS ground shipping cost from AlliedAqua applied  (average of Santa Cruz CA, Atlanta GA, Boston MA and Bozeman MT)

Compare with: today’s prices (July 30, 2016)

  • Yellowtail Tuna fillet $37.4/kg (California)
  • Albacore Tuna , sushi grade  $44/kg (California)
  • Maine lobster (1.25 to 1.5 lb size, live)  $18.80/kg (Boston)
  • Tilapia
    • Walmart frozen fillet $10.66/4.0 lb ($5.86/kg)
    • Fisherman’s Cove, fresh premium fillet $4.99/lb ($11/kg)
    • China, frozen $3 to $4.2/kg ,  $750/MT ($0.75/kg) +shipping
    • mytilapia,com : 10-year price range Fresh $3 to 3.5/lb ($6.60 to $7.70/kg)   ,  Frozen $2 to 2.75/lb
  • Hmmm IF retail prime is $11, then reg fillet @ $10/kg – 40% -> $6/kg wholesale
    • 1 kg fillet @ 35% yield = LW 2.86 kg equivalent
    • 1 kg LW = $2.1 /kg (not including processing/ice/delivery costs)
    • if process/delivery costs add 30%, then LW ‘value’ = $1.47/kg (used $3.30 in comparison)

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Full Summary

APS vs Mora Table

 

BONUS BONUS

click image to enlarge

Put yet another way …

APS vs iAVs Table

 

Barely 6 out of 100 in the AP survey claim gross product of $35/m2/yr or more (at F$3.3 and P$6.6/kg).  Top range of $40 to $50 m2/yr.   What are the costs? AT what costs, risk, effort?    APS mean feed cost alone at FCR 1.5 is from 16 to 38% of gross, depending on vendor (5 to 7% at ton volume).

How much better does better need be?